FTTx in UK will overtake Cable Modem in 2016 and xDSL by mid-2020

London, 2 December 2014- Quantum-Web forecasts that 2016 will be the year when FTTx starts to gain genuine momentum in UK overtaking Cable Modem and by mid-2020 will be the moment FTTx overtakes xDSL in terms of subscriber volumes.

While the overall broadband subscriber base will continue to rise modestly, xDSL will start to decline sharply in 2017 but will remain dominant for the next five years.  Cable Modem will remain more or less stable throughout the forecast period.

Fibre promises undoubted benefits to consumers and providers alike.  Consumers have high expectations around data-rich services for all the family and fibre will be a key element in delivering high-value media-rich experiences.  At the same time, network service providers might see investments in fibre as somewhat “future-proof”, by which we mean that the end-consumer’s equipment is typically the limiting factor and not the fibre itself, which ought to permit a time lapse before having to upgrade infrastructure.

Adjusting the lens slightly and turning our focus to super-fast broadband, we are highlighting the UK because we believe that UK has the potential to be the leading market for high-speed broadband service innovation.  Penetration in US (8%) is still relatively immature and in parts of Asia (eg South Korea, >60%), where there is higher market uptake than UK (12%), service innovation has been somewhat limited.  These wider factors, combined with UK market dynamics, lead us to believe that UK is well-positioned to lead the way.

Figure 1: UK Broadband Access Trends (2010-2020)

FTTx Trend UK1

 

The biannual forecast service, covers over 150 countries and 700 operators globally for the next 6 years. Our forecasts cover both the individual 700 operators and the country aggregated levels. The operators forecasts include the estimation of main KPIs of all 700 operators individually. This service includes forecasts for the following metrics at operator level:

  • Fixed residential and business broadband connections
  • Access technology
  • Revenue per connection
  • Traffic by service/application