Wireless Subscription and ARPU Forecast in Egypt 2015- 2020

Latest analysis from Quantum-Web predicts almost 25% growth in wireless subscription in Egypt to 2020, reaching 125m vs 100m in 2014.

Figure1- Q4 2013, Q4 2014 and Q4 2020 Wireless Subscription by Technology

Egypt

In penetration terms, there will be 137 wireless ‘subscriptions’ for every 100 person living in Egypt in 2020.  Corresponding penetration in 2014 was 121.  4G as a percentage of overall wireless subscription will reach 23% by 2020, even though 4G services have not yet been launched.

There are three main drivers behind our optimism around growth prospects for wireless overall and 4G’ in particular: investment by operators; supply-side competition; and, fixed-line substitution.  Firstly, operators will make substantial investments in 4G network rollouts, as they seek to achieve competitive advantage among an increasingly demanding consumer base.  Secondly, an additional network operator by the end of 2015, will shake up the supply-side dynamics and sharpen price competition.  And thirdly, although Egypt has relatively mature fixed Telecoms infrastructure compared to many other nations in the continent of Africa, we expect new adoptors to jump straight to wireless, especially younger consumers.

While we foresee solid growth in subscriber numbers in Egypt over the next few years, which will be good for network operators, we caveat our optimism with the prediction that average revenues per subscriber will be under pressure.  We see average monthly revenues trending from $6.4 in 2014 to $5.5 in 2020 at constant price.  Quantum-Web offers these top-level opinions as a conversation-starter and we would very much welcome the opportunity to discuss further our work on Telecoms markets and trends.